Friday, October 02, 2009

There's a notion out there that "tempting fate" is a bad idea. If your favorite basketball player is at the free throw line with the game on the line, and the announcer says that the player is a 90% shooter, chances are, he'll miss and your team will lose. If you hear there's a 50% chance of rain, and you go out without your umbrella, it will probably rain. If you don't read my blog regularly, you'll get a horrible disease and there will be weeping a gnashing of teeth. And the like.

Even though our rationality says otherwise, even though we know a 50% chance of rain is a 50% chance of rain--regardless of what we do with our umbrella--we're still nervous to "tempt fate." As it turns out, we believe these things because it's less taxing for our brains than actually figuring out rational likelihoods and probabilities (Risen & Gilovich, 2008).

So good news, if you're superstitious, or even "a little stitious," you actually have more of your brain power available to do other, more important, things; like figuring out why people keep trying to mess with David Letterman.

5 comments:

  1. Anonymous1:17 PM

    I was going to say something bad about David Letterman's behavior, but I know if I do say anything, something bad will happen to me...

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  2. I'm all for less taxing of the brain, knock on wood.

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  3. Anonymous8:56 AM

    I wonder if David Letterman is living in such a way as to invite some of the mess...and I imagine just the fact of being incredibly rich and famous would incite certain types of people(read psychotic)to want to mess with him. That's why I chose NOT to become rich or famous! haha
    Love, Mom

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  4. lol messing with letterman is tempting fate...

    ha stitious

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  5. mom, you choose not to be famous huh? lol

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